Two Giants Which Could Suffer a Shock Early Exit at the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Every tournament, the FIFA World Cup has a surprise package. At Qatar 2022, Morocco became the first African nation in history to reach the semifinals, beating both Spain and Portugal along the way. Unfancied Croatia also reached the final four, just four years on from their maiden final appearance in 2018. However, for every underdog that thrives, there is a heavyweight that flops.

Ronaldo and Portugal
Source: Pixabay

Germany's Decade-Long Plight

Across the last two tournaments, it has been Germany. After famously romping to the trophy in 2014, thumping Brazil 7-1 on home turf before downing Lionel Messi's Argentina in the final, Die Mannschaft hasn't once made it past the group stage. They were stunned by both Mexico and South Korea in Russia, before an incredible upset defeat to Japan in Qatar, sending them bowing out in the group stage for the second straight tournament. Their plight was made all the more unbelievable considering that, before 2018, the Germans had never suffered a group stage elimination.

Online odds providers make Julian Nagelsmann's side contenders once again next year. While the World Cup in-play odds at Bovada won't be available until the tournament gets underway next June, their outright winner market is certainly up and running. The American betting giant currently prices Germany as a 10/1 shot, comfortably behind 4/1 favorites Spain and 13/2 second-favorites England. But still, they are certainly in with a chance.

But while the Germans may well be on their way back, some other nations are riddled with issues ahead of next summer's global showdown. So, which nations could stumble their way to an early exit? Here are two teams to keep an eye on for all the wrong reasons.

Portugal

Throughout the vast majority of 2025, Portugal looked like a force to be reckoned with. Under Roberto Martinez, the Seleção das Quinas became the first team in history to win the UEFA Nations League twice as they upset Spain in Munich. Then, they made a blistering start to their World Cup qualifying campaign, thumping Armenia 6-0 in Yerevan to get off to the perfect start. However, since then, things have started to go badly wrong.

Portugal needed last-gasp winners to secure victories against Hungary and the Republic of Ireland. Unfortunately, those late goals began to dry up. In the reverse fixture against the Magyar's in Lisbon, it was the visitors who struck late through Dominik Szoboszlai to steal a 2-2 draw. Then in Dublin, a Troy Parrott brace and a Cristiano Ronaldo red card saw the Boys in Green secure a stunning 2-0 upset victory.

Those results have set alarm bells ringing, and there is plenty more for the Portuguese to be worried about. Their talismanic captain, Ronaldo, will be 41 years of age by the time the World Cup gets underway, and while he remains a menacing presence inside the penalty area, the great CR7 is nowhere near the force he once was. Add to that the fact that both Vernando Silva and Bruno Fernandes, two crucial midfield cogs, are both out of form and on the wrong side of 30, and there are plenty of causes for concern.

There are also question marks surrounding manager Roberto Martinez. The Spaniard famously fumbled Belgium's golden generation, reaching just one semifinal despite a stellar cast of players led by Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne. He has already led Portugal to two disappointing quarterfinal exits, and his side could well be dumped out far sooner than that in North America next summer.

Brazil

Brazil is the record five-time FIFA World Cup champions. But since their most recent success in Japan and South Korea in 2002, it has been nothing but pain. Four quarter- final exits in five tournaments, and the one time they did make it further than the last eight, they were thumped 7-1 by Germany in the semifinals on their own patch in, without question, the worst defeat in the history of Brazilian football. In Qatar, they were dumped out on penalties by Croatia despite being well fancied, and their qualifying campaign for next summer couldn't have gone any worse.

Yes, the Selecao did indeed qualify for the World Cup, ensuring that their perfect record of qualifying for every single global showdown remains intact. However, there were plenty of scares. Defeats to Uruguay, Colombia, Paraguay, and lowly Bolivia, coupled with losses home and away to archrivals Argentina, left the Brazilians in very real danger of not qualifying for the first time. They ultimately got the job done and punched their tickets in the end, but the danger signs are there for all to see.

Former talisman Neymar is no more, currently rotting in a relegation-bound Santos side. Vinicius Jr, arguably the best player on the planet in 2024, is suddenly in miserable form, and questions abound as to whether he can be the leading light his country needs him to be. More and more responsibility is being placed on teenager Estêvão, but whether his young shoulders are up for the task of carrying the hopes and dreams of a nation remains to be seen.