Gambling Expert Reveals Shocking Truth About 2026 FIFA World Cup Betting
Even with a bunch of countries already getting dispatched from the tournament, the 2026 FIFA World Cup remains among the globe’s most hot-button topics. Conversations range from picking winners, debating surprising and disappointing standouts, rehashing epic moments, and of course, anything and everything that has to do with betting on the World Cup.
The latter discussion is not particularly novel. The FIFA World Cup has long been a hot bed for a high-volume of wagering. We aren’t just talking about dollar amounts, either. That is part of it. But the sheer optionality when it comes to World Cup betting is through the roof. Take a look at any of the wildly popular online sports betting sites reviewed at MyTopSportsbook, and you are liable to get overwhelmed by the breadth and variety of markets.
Quite fittingly, experts have by and large predicted that record amounts of money will be bet during the World Cup. Initial estimates had FIFA’s tantalizing tournament generating north of $50 billion in total wagers across the globe.
As it turns out, the real projection is…much higher. Not only that, but the $50 billion figure isn’t even close. Not by a long shot. The reason? Unregulated betting markets continue to dominate the World Cup gambling sector.
Over Half a Trillion Dollars will be Wagered During the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Rest assured, you are reading this heading correctly. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to generate a half-trillion dollars in total bets. That is trillion, with a "t."
This projection comes courtesy of Gaming Compliance International, a company that describes itself as providing "gaming intelligence empowering governments and tribal nations to combat illicit gambling and confidently regulate land-based and online jurisdictions."
Speaking with Boaz Sobrado of Forbes, GCI’s president Ismail Vali laid bare the volume of World Cup betting taking place at unregulated sportsbooks (subscription required):
"More than half a trillion dollars will be wagered on the 2026 World Cup, and much of it goes through unlicensed crypto operators, according to Gaming Compliance International. 'Conservatively, we're looking at $593 billion. So this is an over half a trillion dollar betting event,' Ismail Vali said on the first morning of the 2026 World Cup. 'This will be bigger than anything we've seen before.' Vali is the president of Gaming Compliance International, and he has spent the run-up to the tournament counting the money about to move through it. 'The World Cup, along with the Super Bowl, is one of these events that basically changes audiences, changes marketplaces completely,' Vali said on the On The Margin podcast. 'You're looking at the World Cup, the biggest tournament sports betting event.'"
"The split is the part that should sting. 'Regulated's coming in at around 31 percent,' Vali said. 'Unregulated and unacknowledged, 69 percent. So that 69 percent is worth $409 billion.'"
While exact figures from unregulated sportsbooks are tough to pin down, the fact that GCI calls $593 billion a "conservative" estimate is mind-melting. It is also telltale of how prominent offshore sportsbooks operating without governing oversight remain.
Why Unregulated Sites Continue to Dominate World Cup Betting
Unregulated betting is not top-of-mind for most people. Indeed, the wider-spread legalization of sports betting, particularly across the United States, has left many believing these markets aren’t particularly influential or sizable anymore. In fact, tons of people believe that prediction markets pose more of a threat to regulated sports betting than offshore bookies.
They couldn’t be more wrong.
Across the globe, the vast majority of sports betting likely runs through unregulated sportsbooks. The difference is probably starkest in countries that don’t have gambling legalization, but regulated markets are not immune.
Take the United States, for example. Around 40 states have some form of legal sports betting in place. Even so, we would hazard that most sports betting in the United States continues to happen at offshore sportsbooks that aren’t regulated.
There are a multitude of factors that contribute to the enduring trend. For starters, not every legal sports betting haven offers online options. Many places only allow on-site wagers.
Offshore betting sites, on the other hand, have cut their teeth offering online services to pretty much anyone, regardless of where they live, for decades now.
On top of that, the anonymity guaranteed through unregulated sportsbooks is tough to beat. Regulated markets have stricter identification processes. Some even have customers undergo background checks.
Approval is not anywhere near this stringent at most unregulated sportsbooks. Sure, customers take on more risk. They have virtually no recourse if something goes wrong, and if they feel they have been misled or cheated. But most are willing to roll the dice on everything being hunky-dory when it means remaining anonymous or even more easily being able to place wagers using cryptocurrency.
The proof is in the CDI’s numbers. More than two-thirds of the World Cup sports betting volume is expected to be funneled through unregulated. If that’s the case for one of the two or three most popular gambling competitions of all time, then you can, ahem, bet the trend holds across different events and periods in the sports calendar.
Whether this ever changes is anyone’s guess. Perhaps as legalized sports betting becomes more standard around the world, unregulated markets will see their business dwindle. Yet, if 2026 World Cup betting is any indication, we are a long, long, long way from that shift taking place.